A Saturday Short
The Hybrid Weather Connection
Established in October of 1970, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is an agency of the US federal government. The agency is charged with, “forecasting weather, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, charting the seas, and conducting deep sea exploration.” Below is their long-range prediction for the winter conditions of 2023 – 2024. The long-range forecast, like in past predictions, is never very detailed, but as some might say, “good enough for government work”:
The Farmer’s Almanac has been in continual publication since 1818 and provides long-range weather predictions for Canada and the United States. The publication says they provide their forecasts based on “exclusive mathematical and astronomical formula, that relies on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position, and many other factors". Their prediction, as shown below, are always more detailed, and many in the agronomy and associated businesses rely on the forecast.
The Farmers’ Almanac, entitled, “The BRRR is back” shows cold and wintry conditions through almost all of the contiguous United States, while the NOAA prediction shows above or leaning above temperatures for the entire country. The NOAA predicted amounts of precipitation are located in the following image:
Equal chances are defined as a “forecast in areas where the likelihood of seasonal mean temperatures or seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities”. Which, in my opinion, is an opportune word salad for whatever happens they can claim to be exactly right.
While I am not going to say which one is most likely the best predictor, what I will say is that there is an obvious hybrid association between federal agencies and the elected government. It has been proven in many cases and venues outside of climate change, but certainly within climate change as well. This is merely another example of a partnership with the present federal bureaucracy. As I wrote in A Saturday Short - A Climate Crossing, “At the beginning of Joe Biden’s administration, all agencies and departments were directed to strictly make anything and everything about climate change.”